Florida Republicans received early voting figures Sunday as a new model showed their party holding a statewide ballot advantage.
Election Data Guy published a November 1 graphic covering 5,254,007 early and mail votes in Florida.
The graphic assigned 2,129,541 ballots to Republicans, 1,980,166 to Democrats, and 1,144,300 to another category.
Subtracting Democratic ballots from Republican ballots produces the displayed 149,375-vote advantage.
Unlike the Texas model, Florida’s voter registration records identify party affiliation, although registration cannot reveal candidate choices.
Its projected Republican vote range spans 48% to 54%, while Democrats range from 45% to 51%.
The analyst also estimates final statewide turnout at 50%, a projection awaiting Election Day results.
Florida’s Senate election features Republican incumbent Ashley Moody against Democratic state Representative Angie Nixon and independent Neil Gillespie.
Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Moody after Marco Rubio became President Donald Trump’s secretary of state.
The winner will complete Rubio’s Senate term, which expires in January 2029.
Moody previously served as Florida attorney general, gaining prominence through conservative legal challenges and public safety initiatives.
Republicans enter the contest with encouraging recent statewide election results and a substantial presidential voting advantage.
Trump carried Florida with approximately 56% in 2024, defeating Kamala Harris by roughly thirteen percentage points.
Republican Senator Rick Scott also secured reelection in 2024, reinforcing the party’s statewide strength.
Florida has not elected a Democratic senator since Bill Nelson won another term in 2012.
The 149,375 registration advantage is therefore encouraging for Republicans.
Federal campaign data showed Moody raising approximately $14.52 million through October 14.
Her campaign reported roughly $13.71 million in spending and $816,355 remaining on that date.
Nixon reported approximately $11.32 million raised, $8.05 million spent, and $3.27 million available.
The broader Senate stakes remain considerable because Republicans currently hold a 53-seat majority.
Democrats must gain a net 4 seats to take control, with Republican Vice President JD Vance breaking ties.
A Moody victory would help Republicans protect an important seat while pursuing victories in more competitive states.
Republicans are heading into Election Day with formidable national fundraising operations and a major Trump-aligned political spending network backing them.
Federal filings show the Republican National Committee raised approximately $341.5 million during the current cycle through October 14.
The RNC reported approximately $76.2 million remaining in cash, even after extensive transfers, operations, and campaign expenditures.
The National Republican Congressional Committee entered October with approximately $61.3 million available, according to reported September figures.
Associated Press reporting says Trump-aligned groups spent nearly $277 million since early September supporting Republican candidates nationwide.
MAGA Inc., the president’s flagship super PAC, transferred $200 million to No Going Back PAC for campaign activity.
The same reporting placed MAGA Inc.’s remaining cash above $164 million as of October 14, despite major expenditures.
Earlier filings showed the organization entering September with nearly $416 million, demonstrating the extraordinary scale of its fundraising.
Trump has said his political network could spend more than $400 million before Election Day, although future spending remains uncertain.
Late last week, former White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Donald Trump is determined to defy a challenging midterm political landscape as Republicans fight to defend their narrow majorities in the House and Senate.
“The president is defiant, and he always is optimistic,” Leavitt said this week in a Fox News Digital interview in her home state of New Hampshire.
Leavitt said Trump “totally understands that history is not on the Republican side right now if you just frankly look at the history books, but that’s not stopping him from going out and barnstorming the country. He’s been everywhere this week from North Carolina to South Carolina. Be in Michigan again this weekend.”
“The president is getting out there and reminding voters what’s at stake in this election and why it’s so important to get out and vote in the midterms,” Leavitt noted.
“He’s being frank and honest with his voters that ‘I know you don’t turn out in midterm cycles, but we need you to this time,” Leavitt continued.
Leavitt argued that “this election is a contrast between, between commonsense Republican conservative candidates who believe in cutting taxes, securing the border, putting American citizens over illegal aliens, and radical extreme liberal crazy candidates, some of the most radical Democrats we’ve ever seen run in the history of our country.”
And pointing to the GOP’s fundraising superiority over Democratic Party groups, Leavitt added, “We have a huge cash advantage across the country. We are making sure voters understand again what’s at stake in this election and why it’s so important that we win.”
